ace99playslot|光大期货：5月7日有色金属日报

Copper:

The overnight copper price continued to be strong.Ace99playslotPrices continue to hover at high levels. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve negotiated interest rates, and the market's expectations for the extension of the Fed's interest rate cut were further reduced, but Powell's speech still led.Ace99playslotIn response to market sentiment, two senior Fed officials also made dovish remarks on Monday. In addition, the final PMI of the euro zone as a whole in April was 50% in March.Ace99playslot.3 bounce back to 51Ace99playslot.7, 51.4 higher than the initial value, the highest growth rate in 11 months, and the economic recovery accelerated. In terms of fundamentals, domestic TC quotations continued to decline, which also increased market concerns about refined copper supply, but the supply of anode plates may make refined copper production slightly higher than market expectations. In terms of inventory, SMM data on Monday showed a slight increase in copper social inventory, while the elimination of social inventory is still slow. The game between expectation and reality of the copper market continues. Although the outer disk fell during the May Day period, in terms of expansionary economic data and the performance of internal and external financial markets, risk appetite is still strong and supporting copper prices, paying attention to the performance of LME after the opening.

Nickel & stainless steel:

Overnight Shanghai Nickel rose 1.32%. In terms of inventory, domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 54 tons to 19615 tons. From the point of view of the discount, the LME0-March discount remained negative, while the imported nickel discount decreased by 50 yuan / ton to-550yuan / ton. In terms of stainless steel, at the cost end, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel mine rose, the performance of nickel and iron price was strong, and the inventory appeared to be slightly removed before the festival, but the overall inventory level was still on the high side, and there was still a drag on terminal real estate. The performance of white goods driven by policy is on the strong side. In terms of the new energy industry chain, the import growth rate of intermediate products accelerated in March, the month-on-month growth rate of scheduled production slowed down in May, and the price of nickel sulfate fell slightly before the festival. Under the influence of the macro environment and Russian nickel events superimposed by contradictions in some parts of the industrial chain, nickel prices will still be high.

Alumina & electrolytic aluminum:

Alumina concussion was strong on the first day after the festival, and overnight AO2405 closed at 3827 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.5%. Positions were reduced by 554 to 60838 hands. Shanghai aluminum shock is strong, overnight AL2406 closed at 20730 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.29%. Reduce the position by 2305 hands to 218700 hands. Spot aspect, SMM alumina comprehensive price continues to rise to 3501 yuan / ton. Spot aluminum ingot discount expanded to 60 yuan / ton, Foshan A00 quoted up to 20440 yuan / ton, Wuxi A00 quoted discount 100 yuan / ton, downstream aluminum bar processing fees Linyi, Henan stable, Wuxi Xinjiang Guangdong Baotou Nanchang 20-90 yuan / ton; aluminum rod 1A60 stable, 6 top 8 series processing fees increased by 30 yuan / ton; aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 stable, A356 and ZLD102/104 increased by 50 yuan / ton. Alumina funds leave the market before the festival, and under the support of the arbitrage space and the demand for deliverables, we can still pay attention to the unilateral long space after the festival. During the festival, the Fed's interest rate discussion remained unchanged, and non-agricultural data were suppressed to a certain extent. After the opening of the inner trading after the festival, there was a slight make-up decline, but there was little overall impact under the appreciation of the RMB. The internal and external price difference of electrolytic aluminum is expanding, the margin of supply and demand tends to be loose, but there is no prominent contradiction, the market sentiment has not completely turned, it is expected that the performance of alumina is relatively stronger, the interval of electrolytic aluminum is mainly fluctuating, pay attention to the trend of inventory consumption, and guard against price correction.

Tin:

The turnover of Indonesia JFX and ICDX is 100t and 0t, respectively, and the cumulative turnover of the two major exchanges in May is 325t. The main force of Shanghai tin rose 1.85% to 264440 yuan / ton, and the tin futures warehouse receipt was 15913 tons, an increase of 298 tons over the previous day. LME was closed yesterday because of Bank Holiday and resumed normal trading today. Spot market, for 2406, Yunxi Shengshui 0300 yuan / ton, Yunzi discount 0800 yuan / ton, small brand discount 1000 yuan / ton. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-790 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-710 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 8.26. Last week, more than 40 per cent entity positions in LME05 bulls remained, while short positions in Klang continued to fall below 20 per cent to 3. Next week is the final trading day of the 05 contract, and we may see continued storage of inventories. Indonesian trading volume shrank more in the first week of May, but the pace of LME out of the warehouse is slow, in the short term, prices may be partial volatility, can be bargain-seeking machine layout in the long-term.

Zinc:

As of Monday, SMM Seven Zinc Ingot stocks totaled 216300 tons, an increase of 3500 tons over April 25 and 4700 tons over April 29. The main force of zinc in Shanghai rose 0.54% to 23385 yuan / ton, and zinc futures warehouse receipts were 76823 tons, an increase of 95 tons over the previous day. LME was closed yesterday because of Bank Holiday and resumed normal trading today. In the spot market, the discount of Shanghai Zinc to 2406 is around 140150 yuan / ton, and the average price is 0.10 yuan / ton; the discount of Guangdong Zinc to Shanghai Zinc 2406 is 85,110yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai; the discount of Tianjin Zinc to 2405 is around 10-60 yuan / ton, and the price of Tianjin is 30 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai. In terms of price difference, 05-06 spread-35 yuan / ton, 06-07 spread-50 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 8.04. Although overseas smelters and mines announced resumption of production before and after May Day, it had little impact on the overall disk. Prices fluctuated higher after opening low yesterday, indicating that the market is currently trading more on domestic real estate stimulus policies. In the short term, although there is no positive stimulus to the demand for physical procurement, the market mood is optimistic and prices may be strongly volatile.

Industrial silicon:

On the first day after the festival, the industrial silicon shock was weak, with the main force 2406 closing at 11995 yuan / ton on the 6th, down 0.42% on the day, with positions reduced by 2636 to 108100 hands. The spot continues to stabilize, and the reference price of Baichuan is 13367 yuan / ton, which is the same as before the festival. Among them, the price range of # 553 fell to 12800-13500 yuan / ton, and the price range of # 421 remained stable at 13550-14050 yuan / ton. The lowest delivery price is 11750 yuan / ton, and the spot discount is expanded to 205yuan / ton. Before the festival, some manufacturers take the opportunity to replenish the stock and stack the short positions to reduce the stock to drive the upward repair of the disk surface. However, there is no significant improvement in terminal demand, the scale of downstream hoarding is not high, the post-holiday supply market of silicon factories is still in doubt, and the possibility of demand exceeding expectations is on the low side. Cost-side slow release of superimposed warehouse receipts into the spot pressure, post-holiday disk appears pullback pressure. As the marginal disturbance between supply and demand weakens, and the silicon price is at a relatively low point, the subsequent silicon price will change from a unilateral decline to a narrow volatility market, it is recommended to appropriately stop the surplus to leave the market, should not pursue short too much.

Lithium carbonate:

昨日碳酸锂期货2407合约跌0.75%至约11.24万元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价维持至11.18万元/吨，工业级碳酸锂维持至10.93万元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂平均价维持10.04万元/吨，基差约-650元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单增加815吨至20373吨。消息面，盛新锂能在互动平台表示，萨比星矿山年产锂精矿约20万吨已实现达产；据智利海关数据4月智利出口碳酸锂约27，100吨，环比39.14%，同比102.12%，1-4月累计出口约82，035吨，累计同比31.38%。其中出口至中国约22，900吨，环比42.27%，同比162.25%，1-4月累计约64.873吨累计同比60.34%；出口至韩国约2，089吨，环比21.63%，同比-39.56%，1-4月累计约8，287吨，累计同比-40.83%。供应端，5月预计碳酸锂产量仍有增量，源于大厂/盐湖检修结束的复产和前期外购矿部分，同时进口方面仍有增量预期。需求端，前期价格相对低位，下游有所补库，5月正极材料排产环比增速快速放缓，部分正极厂家采购意愿也有减弱，终端方面或随以旧换新政策和车展有所拉动。工碳/锂矿价格仍有支撑，且关于尾渣处理文件发布，提锂成本预期有所增加；而进口量超预期，或对价格产生一定压力。市场整体缺乏较强驱动，短期维持震荡。